Topic: general

Core thesis

AI should be used to increase understanding, not to outsource understanding.

And it should be used to assist judgment, not to replace judgment.

That is the thread running through everything here: the mathematics, the economics,…

I keep seeing the same claim from AI enthusiasts on LinkedIn:

AI makes senior engineers more important. Coding is dead, or at least no longer the scarce skill. Taste, judgment, and vision remain. The code itself is becoming cheap. The real question,…

Accept the Premise

Go ahead, ask GPT if coding is no longer relevant.

It will probably say something polite and qualified, because the machine has been trained not to walk directly into the knife. It will say coding still matters, but the future…

The next phase of the AI cycle is not simply about whether AI is real.

AI is useful. The harder question is whether the juice is worth the squeeze right now, with war risk, oil pressure, sticky inflation, weaker public sentiment, visible ROI ceilings,…

The Economy Is Hiring, But Leverage Is Dying

Prima facie, this is not a recessionary labor market.

The United States added 172,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent. The recent hiring pace still looks healthy: the three-month…